At the BFS 69 seminar, Mr. Toda, an experienced “Old-Voice,” shared profound thoughts on the global economic landscape and development orientations for Vietnamese businesses. Here are 5 key takeaways:

1. 20-Year Journey in Vietnam and Mentoring Role: Mr. Toda shared about his 20-year commitment to Vietnam, stemming from an initial one-year consulting invitation. Over time, he has gained a deeper understanding of Vietnam, noting its similarities to Japan in the 1970s – a period his generation deeply experienced and observed throughout its trajectory. He feels increasingly useful to young Vietnamese businesses who need mentors to grasp the overall picture and emerging opportunities during the nation’s take-off cycle or era of ascent. He emphasized that Vietnam can learn from how his generation supported China and Korea, while also incorporating contemporary factors.
2. The Nature of U.S. Policy: Mr. Toda analyzed that the ultimate nature of U.S. policy, especially under Trump, is to create a G3 or G2, and ideally a G1 (U.S. dominance). The U.S. is reverting to the Morone doctrine from 200 years ago, abandoning its role as an “international policeman” to intervene only in matters directly affecting U.S. interests and to build a strong strategic hinterland around the U.S. He believes that post-Trump administrations will continue this path and it will not be easy to change.
3. Trade Wars and Tariffs: Mr. Toda opined that trade wars or tariffs, by nature, will never bring all production industries back to the U.S., as history has repeatedly shown this to be unsuccessful. He believes this time will be no different. Regarding tariffs on Vietnam, he suggested that the rates are unlikely to be low, possibly even higher than China’s, which could be a strategy to target the buffer zone of the biggest competitor, China.
4. Diversification in the Current Context: In the current environment, businesses need to shift from concentrating on a few markets, large customer groups, or mass production. Instead, they need to diversify risks across both external environments and internal production processes, diversifying customers, markets, products, and maximizing flexibility in small-batch production. The era where mass production was a superior competitive advantage is nearing its end.
5. Reshaping Supply Chains and Markets: Mr. Toda emphasized that the whole world is reshaping its interconnected axes, supply chains, and consumer markets. Therefore, Vietnam needs to consider its domestic market as the primary market and implement a system replication process from Japanese businesses, as China and Korea did previously. Building a system from R&D to distribution is essential to escape the pure processing state as quickly as possible, as Vietnam will quickly lose this advantage to lower-income countries. Vietnam itself will need many domestic support policies in high-value-added sectors requiring large capital or high technology, because without successfully doing so, it will not escape the middle-income trap. He concluded that we are in a transitional period, so “Wait & See” is the current guiding principle for the strong geopolitical shifts and the revolution of automation + intelligentization.